HOW OUR PREDICTION IS SIMULATED.
Our prediction begins with the actual shooters entered in the upcoming Main Event. Historical results tell us how those shooters have performed; the upcoming entry list tells us who is eligible to be picked. A shooter must also have at least 3 tracked Main Event starts so the model has enough history to evaluate him. We then build a performance profile for every eligible shooter and simulate the tournament 10,000 times. The three shooters who win most often across those simulations become our predicted HOA, Runner Up, and 3rd Place.
46%Recent Main Event form
30%Long-term performance
18%Demonstrated scoring ceiling
6%Wins / podiums / Top-10 history
Our 3 Predictions — Simulation Breakdown
| Shooter | Starts | Wins | Podiums | Top 10s |
Avg Score | Recent % HOA | Ceiling % HOA |
Sim Wins | Win Chance | Odds |
| Todd Hitch |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
184.0 |
98.6% |
99.4% |
3,403 / 10,000 |
34.0% |
+195 |
| Derrick Mein |
3 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
186.0 |
98.6% |
99.3% |
2,636 / 10,000 |
26.4% |
+280 |
| Zachary Kienbaum |
5 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
179.6 |
95.5% |
98.3% |
596 / 10,000 |
6.0% |
+1,580 |
1. The upcoming field comes first: Only shooters entered in the upcoming Main Event are considered. A great shooter who is not entered cannot appear in our prediction.
2. At least 3 Main Events are required: One exceptional tournament can make a shooter look stronger than he really is. Requiring three tracked Main Event starts gives the model enough evidence to begin measuring repeatability, consistency and form. Shooters with fewer than three starts remain in the historical database but are not eligible for the prediction.
3. We compare performance to the HOA: A raw score does not tell the entire story because tournament difficulty changes. The model measures a shooter's score relative to the HOA score from that event. For example, shooting 188 when the HOA is 190 is a stronger relative performance than shooting 188 when the HOA is 198.
4. Recent form — 46%: Recent Main Events receive the most influence. Older results gradually lose influence, using approximately a 120-day half-life. This allows a shooter who is currently performing exceptionally well to move upward without completely erasing his longer history.
5. Long-term performance — 30%: The model uses the shooter's average performance relative to HOA across his tracked Main Events. This provides the stable foundation of the prediction and helps prevent one or two unusual tournaments from dominating the forecast.
6. Scoring ceiling — 18%: Winning often requires more than shooting your average. The model therefore measures the level a shooter has demonstrated he can reach on a great day. The ceiling combines 70% of his best HOA-relative performance with 30% of his long-term HOA-relative average. This rewards proven upside while preventing one career-best score from being treated as normal performance.
7. Winning and finishing history — 6%: Actual Main Event wins, podium finishes and Top-10 finishes provide an additional pressure-performance factor. Wins receive the most credit, followed by podiums and Top 10s. We intentionally keep this portion smaller than scoring performance so past trophies matter without automatically determining the next winner.
8. Consistency matters: Every shooter has his own performance range. A consistent shooter receives a tighter range of possible simulated performances. A more volatile shooter receives a wider range, giving him a greater chance of both an unusually low result and an unusually high winning result. This is one reason the shooter with the highest average is not always the shooter most likely to win.
9. We simulate the tournament 10,000 times: In each simulated Main Event, every eligible shooter receives a performance generated from his individual form, long-term level, ceiling and consistency. The highest simulated performance wins that tournament. We repeat that process 10,000 times.
10. How the final three are selected: We count how many of the 10,000 tournaments each shooter wins. The shooter with the most simulated victories becomes our HOA prediction. The next two become our Runner Up and 3rd Place predictions. The displayed win percentage is the shooter's simulated wins divided by 10,000.
11. Odds: The displayed American-style odds are calculated directly from the simulation win percentage and rounded to the nearest 5. They are prediction-model odds only and are not a sportsbook line.
Example: Imagine Shooter A is entered in the upcoming Main Event and has six tracked Main Event starts. His recent performance is excellent, his long-term results are strong, and he has demonstrated a high scoring ceiling. Shooter B has a slightly better historical average but a narrower scoring ceiling. Across 10,000 simulations, Shooter A wins 1,420 tournaments while Shooter B wins 1,180. Shooter A's simulated win chance is therefore 14.2%, and he ranks ahead of Shooter B even though Shooter B may have the slightly higher average score. The model is trying to answer one question: who is most likely to actually win this particular field?
Important: This is a statistical prediction, not a guarantee. Weather, target presentation, travel, equipment, health, shoot-offs and day-of-event performance can all change the actual result.
