Published on October 12, 2022

Neil Chadwick: 2022 Nationals and the changes to look for

Neil Chadwick, one of the lead guys at The National Championship, talks about the upcoming event, the changes, the super squad, how the targets will be different this year from previous years, cheating, protests, the hall of fame and a lot more.

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By Shotgun Sports USA. Predictions driven by Performance.

2026 SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP MAIN EVENT

712Registered

146Eligible

46%Recent Main
Event Form

30%Long-Term
Performance

18%Scoring
Ceiling

6%Wins / Podiums /
Top-10 History

OUR 3 PREDICTIONS - SIMULATION BREAKDOWN

Rank	Shooter	Starts	Wins	Podiums	Top 10s	Avg Score	Recent % HOA	Ceiling % HOA	Sim Wins	Win Chance
1	TODD HITCH	4	2	2	3	184.0	98.6%	99.4%	3,308 / 10,000	33.1%
2	DERRICK MEIN	3	0	2	3	186.0	98.6%	99.3%	2,687 / 10,000	26.9%
3	ZACHARY KIENBAUM	5	0	1	3	179.6	95.5%	98.3%	622 / 10,000	6.2%

1 TODD HITCH

Avg Score184.0

Sim Wins / 10,0003,308 / 10,000

Recent % HOA98.6%

Ceiling % HOA99.4%

Starts4

Wins2

Podiums2

Top 10s3

Win Chance33.1%

2 DERRICK MEIN

Avg Score186.0

Sim Wins / 10,0002,687 / 10,000

Recent % HOA98.6%

Ceiling % HOA99.3%

Starts3

Wins0

Podiums2

Top 10s3

Win Chance26.9%

3 ZACHARY KIENBAUM

Avg Score179.6

Sim Wins / 10,000622 / 10,000

Recent % HOA95.5%

Ceiling % HOA98.3%

Starts5

Wins0

Podiums1

Top 10s3

Win Chance6.2%

THE UPCOMING FIELD COMES FIRST: Only shooters entered in the upcoming Main Event are considered. A great shooter who is not entered cannot appear in our prediction.

AT LEAST 3 MAIN EVENTS ARE REQUIRED: Requiring three tracked Main Event starts gives the model enough evidence to begin measuring repeatability, consistency and form.

WE COMPARE PERFORMANCE TO THE HOA: The model measures a shooter's score relative to the HOA score from that event so tournament difficulty is accounted for.

RECENT FORM — 46%: Recent Main Events receive the most influence. Older results gradually lose influence so current form can move a shooter upward without erasing longer history.

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

How We Came Up With These Three Shooters

These picks are not selected from one score, one tournament, or opinion. The model builds a performance profile for every eligible shooter in the upcoming field, then runs 10,000 simulated Main Events and ranks the shooters by how often they actually win those simulations.

Start With The Actual Field

Only shooters registered for the upcoming Main Event can be selected. The model then requires at least 3 tracked Main Event starts so there is enough history to measure form and consistency.

Normalize Every Performance

Raw scores are compared with that event's HOA score. This turns each result into a percentage of HOA, helping the model compare performances from tournaments with different difficulty levels.

Recent Form — 46%

Recent Main Event performance receives the largest weight. Older results gradually lose influence using approximately a 120-day half-life, so current form matters most without erasing long-term history.

Long-Term Performance — 30%

The shooter's average HOA-relative performance across the tracked Main Event history provides the stable baseline for what that shooter normally produces.

Scoring Ceiling — 18%

The model estimates upside from the shooter's best historical performance while tempering it with the long-term average. This rewards proven tournament-winning potential without overreacting to one exceptional event.

Pressure History — 6%

Wins, podiums and Top-10 finishes provide a smaller adjustment. They can strengthen a profile, but they do not overpower recent form or sustained scoring performance.

Consistency Matters

The model measures how much a shooter's HOA-relative performances fluctuate. More tracked starts provide stronger evidence and slightly tighten the expected performance range used in simulations.

Estimate The Next HOA

Recent stored Main Event HOA scores are used to estimate the scoring environment for the upcoming tournament. The model then translates each simulated HOA-relative performance into a projected raw score.

Run 10,000 Tournaments

Every realistic contender receives a simulated performance in each tournament. The shooter with the highest simulated score wins that run. This is repeated 10,000 times.

Rank By Simulated Wins

The final Top Three are ordered by simulation victories. The shooter who wins the most simulations becomes the projected HOA favorite; second and third are the next two most frequent winners.

LIVE EXAMPLE — CURRENT #1

TODD HITCH

The current model sees 98.6% HOA recent form, 97.9% HOA long-term performance, and a 99.4% HOA scoring ceiling. Those inputs contribute about 45.37, 29.37, 17.89, and 6.05 performance-index points from the 46% / 30% / 18% / 6% components.

That creates a simulation mean of 98.69% of expected HOA with a performance spread of about ±2.61. Across 10,000 simulated tournaments, Todd Hitch wins 3,308 times, producing a modeled win chance of 33.08%.

Why Each Shooter Made The Top Three

TODD HITCH

4 starts, 2 wins, 2 podiums, and 3 Top-10s (75.0% of tracked starts). Recent form is 98.6% HOA, long-term performance is 97.9% HOA, and scoring ceiling is 99.4% HOA.

The model mean is 98.69% HOA with an estimated spread of ±2.61. This shooter won 3,308 of 10,000 simulations for a 33.08% modeled win chance.

DERRICK MEIN

3 starts, 0 wins, 2 podiums, and 3 Top-10s (100.0% of tracked starts). Recent form is 98.6% HOA, long-term performance is 98.7% HOA, and scoring ceiling is 99.3% HOA.

The model mean is 98.93% HOA with an estimated spread of ±1.35. This shooter won 2,687 of 10,000 simulations for a 26.87% modeled win chance.

ZACHARY KIENBAUM

5 starts, 0 wins, 1 podiums, and 3 Top-10s (60.0% of tracked starts). Recent form is 95.5% HOA, long-term performance is 95.7% HOA, and scoring ceiling is 98.3% HOA.

The model mean is 96.16% HOA with an estimated spread of ±2.59. This shooter won 622 of 10,000 simulations for a 6.22% modeled win chance.